Thursday, February 17, 2005

Futurist Joel Kotkin, a fellow of the New America Foundation, wrote a column for the Washington Post titled "Rule Suburbia," declaring that the land-use debate is now over and suburban sprawl is the undisputed winner.

"Once we acknowledge this reality, we can turn to the task of making the best of it." Kotkin wrote.

He makes a good point.  Americans have spoken with their feet, and their feet are not being used for walking, they are being used for driving to the suburbs.  The suburbs provide an undeniable allure of safety, natural beauty, and open space.  Add in the low cost of suburban land and you've got yourself a cultural revolution.

He says that the main challenge of the 21st century is to "transform suburbia into something more efficient, interesting, and humane".  And then he points toward the future of suburbia, which is an evolution toward village building.  Suburban areas are quickly becoming grid locked by traffic jams.  Services and products that are made available nearby to these suburban meccas are very profitable.  Suburban villages that are capable of delivering goods and services locally are already popping up in fast-growing regions all over the US.

If we are in fact headed for a global peak in oil production which drives fuel prices sky high, the "suburb as village" model may well be our saving grace.  Centralizing our goods and services within clusters of suburban villages could help us transition to a more sustainable delivery model. 

For instance, right now you can save money by driving to Walmart even if it's a 30 mile journey.  But eventually that 30 mile journey will cost far more than the savings you realize on your Walmart purchases.

Similarly, it currently makes sense to create one huge high school and bus thousands of kids to a centralized location.  But the cost of fuel could force busing prices through the roof.  Consequently it would save money to build small schools in the village and keep the kids close to home.

And the list goes on:  Health care, day care, entertainment, restaurants, and civic venues will all be rebuilt with the suburban village in mind.  Eventually the suburban wasteland of strip malls and McMansions will have to evolve or die.

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